Quote Originally Posted by Nosevi View Post
What was the quote? "People tend to underestimate the change that will occur in 5 years and overestimate the change that will occur in 50 years." Something like that.

This is their vision of what 1976 would look like in terms of personal transport back in 1956:


All cars powered by a new clean energy, autonomous 'safe' travel etc. Sound familiar?

While the guys in the film may have wanted to sing about it and big companies like GM were pushing hard for it, it simply didn't happen in the following 20 years.......... and still hasn't in almost 70 years, in fact not all that much has really changed in terms of how we get about.

If I had one wish, just one, it'd be that engineers, car companies, 'concept companies' and especially legislators would stop telling people what they want and what they will want in the future. People by and large didn't want this back in 1976, they don't really want it now and I dare say they won't particularly want it 20 years from now. I actually don't think the kids in China, Africa or India will want an autonomous driving Bentley over a Ferrari or Lamborghini either but we'll see.

To this point engineers have largely failed to predict what the next generation or the one after than will want and the really big advances have largely been unexpected. Who'd have thought that many kids' most treasured possession in 2021 would have been their phone just 30 years ago before you could even text.

Engineers should concentrate on what people actually do want, not what engineers want people to want.
Well on behalf of all the engineers the. can people:

A) Stop voting for the legislators and then being annoyed with engineers for the things they vote for - Euro 6 is not optional and after VW scandal neither can it be ‘gamed’ - the mass market voted for it


B) if you donÂ’t think the personal hand held computer wasnÂ’t predicted or unexpected you clearly werenÂ’t paying any attention at all.

If you think not much has changed at all... maybe for you it hasnÂ’t.

In my lifetime just taking one simple example - the role of women - the whole world almost has changed beyond recognition. All the Labour saving devices that we have created and technology from the pill to robot vacuum have transformed domestic life.

Whether people want an autonomous vehicle or not people donÂ’t want death on the roads or death of pedestrians in the numbers they do so - big companies donÂ’t hold anyone at gun point and sell them something they donÂ’t want. Products answer customers needs.

Only this week I have been working on the ‘value proposition’ in the Luxury marine sector.

Guess what the current customers number 1 value feature is now...and when we asked the two generations below them what is going to be important for them guess what they said.

Progress is driven by human desires not engineers - engineers just make those desires possible.

No one asked for a turbo charged Ferrari but millions and millions asked for cleaner cars so we all got them.