Hypercar Saturation

[Modificato]

What was the quote? "People tend to underestimate the change that will occur in 5 years and overestimate the change that will occur in 50 years." Something like that.

This is their vision of what 1976 would look like in terms of personal transport back in 1956:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2iRDYnzwtk

All cars powered by a new clean energy, autonomous 'safe' travel etc. Sound familiar?

While the guys in the film may have wanted to sing about it and big companies like GM were pushing hard for it, it simply didn't happen in the following 20 years.......... and still hasn't in almost 70 years, in fact not all that much has really changed in terms of how we get about.

If I had one wish, just one, it'd be that engineers, car companies, 'concept companies' and especially legislators would stop telling people what they want and what they will want in the future. People by and large didn't want this back in 1976, they don't really want it now and I dare say they won't particularly want it 20 years from now. I actually don't think the kids in China, Africa or India will want an autonomous driving Bentley over a Ferrari or Lamborghini either but we'll see.

To this point engineers have largely failed to predict what the next generation or the one after than will want and the really big advances have largely been unexpected. Who'd have thought that many kids' most treasured possession in 2021 would have been their phone just 30 years ago before you could even text.

Engineers should concentrate on what people actually do want, not what engineers want people to want.

Well on behalf of all the engineers the. can people:

A) Stop voting for the legislators and then being annoyed with engineers for the things they vote for - Euro 6 is not optional and after VW scandal neither can it be ‘gamed’ - the mass market voted for it

And...

B) if you donÂ’t think the personal hand held computer wasnÂ’t predicted or unexpected you clearly werenÂ’t paying any attention at all.

If you think not much has changed at all... maybe for you it hasnÂ’t.

In my lifetime just taking one simple example - the role of women - the whole world almost has changed beyond recognition. All the Labour saving devices that we have created and technology from the pill to robot vacuum have transformed domestic life.

Whether people want an autonomous vehicle or not people donÂ’t want death on the roads or death of pedestrians in the numbers they do so - big companies donÂ’t hold anyone at gun point and sell them something they donÂ’t want. Products answer customers needs.

Only this week I have been working on the ‘value proposition’ in the Luxury marine sector.

Guess what the current customers number 1 value feature is now...and when we asked the two generations below them what is going to be important for them guess what they said.

Progress is driven by human desires not engineers - engineers just make those desires possible.

No one asked for a turbo charged Ferrari but millions and millions asked for cleaner cars so we all got them.

[Modificato]

PS a the kids in China aren’t asking for Ferrari / Bentley etc.

That’s the 1% of the 1% that’s at best a niche of a niche

The rest of the kids meanwhile want reliable, easy, clean transport on demand they don’t care what it looks like or even to own it, they want to move from one place to another and be able to do other things while they do it. When you were kid you likely sat in the back dreaming of driving. For most kids they have already spent most of their life in cars glued to a device.

As always if you want to know why...

Blame the parents and blame the people who are voting for all this stuff.

Then see all the regulations and laws we have to read before we even lift our digital pencils...

[Nosevi]

The rest of the kids meanwhile want reliable, easy, clean transport on demand they don’t care what it looks like or even to own it, they want to move from one place to another and be able to do other things while they do it. When you were kid you likely sat in the back dreaming of driving. For most kids they have already spent most of their life in cars glued to a device.

As always if you want to know why...

Blame the parents and blame the people who are voting for all this stuff.

Then see all the regulations and laws we have to read before we even lift our digital pencils...

I'm sorry, Mod but I'm surrounded by kids - my kids are still kids (13 and 15), my wife is a teacher, my sister-in law is a teacher, half my extended family are also teachers, I'm literally surrounded by the little blighters....... and to say "kids want reliable, easy, clean transport on demand they don't care what it looks like or even to own it........ " is utter nonsense. It's not true. It's totally made up. Go and actually ask kids if they want an Aventador or an electric autonomous taxi, get back to me if they go with the driverless electric uBer option. They simply don't. I can't say it clearer than that.

If we continue down this road and end up with nothing but autonomous electric vehicles 'on demand' and no one owning their own car etc it won't be because it's what the kids of today or masses of tomorrow have asked for or actually want, it'll be because they were left without a choice. You can only vote for what's in front of you and if the 2 or 3 parties you can reasonably vote for agree that for 'their own good' people should give up certain things you don't, in reality, have much of an option.

We'll see where we are in 10 years time, with all respect my hope is you're as wrong as GM were back in the 50s.

[sssdu01]

I am with Pete on this. All my grandsons and their mates all want to be able to drive, and they all dream of Ferrari/Lambo/etc. In fact I dont know any bloke who has ever expressed a desire to be a non car owner, even those who say they dont like driving still own their own car. As for the uber/Taxi idea they are what you use for getting home when pissed, or going to the airport.

Driving is freedom and the choice to go where you want when you want. Yes you could be in some sort of car share club but do you know anyone who would be willing to wait more than a few mins for a car to be available, and waiting outside your house ?? Never going to happen !!

Any political party that stops people owning their own transport will not get voted in for more than one term. Whilst I have a very lowly opinion of politicians, even the thickest of thick Forest Gumps of the house realise this so it just wont happen.

As for the VW emission scandal, that wasnt done by customers, it wasnt the legislators, it was a load of engineers trying to game the system ie cheating !!!

[Nosevi]

I've just spent a while going through lots of polls about autonomous vehicles. It seems companies keep having polls hoping to get the answer they want but I'm struggling to find any polls where more people want them than don't. Factor in electric only and you can't own them and you're probably only catering for a very niche market

I also see that Mazda have just joined the efuel Alliance (first manufacturer to do so) who appear to be lobbying the EU in particular to take efuel usage into consideration when formulating upcoming legislation that would otherwise be a further nail in the coffin of ICE vehicles in Europe. There's also something of a squabble in the German automotive sector over upcoming EU legislation on this topic. Mazda have said they currently aim to have all vehicles EV as is required by current legislation but that they have always been in favour of a multi-solution approach as opposed to simply legislating all other solutions out of existence in favour of just going 100% EV.

That's all I've really argued for in any of these discussions - no problem with EVs (in fact at some point we may get one as a local runabout), no problem with driverless cars being available, no problem with people choosing a non-ownership model and relying on the Uber of the future, no problem with people deciding to move into the cities if they so choose to do so. Where I think we seem to always be at odds, Mod, is I'm not about to tell people what they want or suggest that legislation should do the job of deciding for people either. I believe people should have the freedom to choose these things for themselves.

[Modificato]

I've just spent a while going through lots of polls about autonomous vehicles. It seems companies keep having polls hoping to get the answer they want but I'm struggling to find any polls where more people want them than don't. Factor in electric only and you can't own them and you're probably only catering for a very niche market

I also see that Mazda have just joined the efuel Alliance (first manufacturer to do so) who appear to be lobbying the EU in particular to take efuel usage into consideration when formulating upcoming legislation that would otherwise be a further nail in the coffin of ICE vehicles in Europe. There's also something of a squabble in the German automotive sector over upcoming EU legislation on this topic. Mazda have said they currently aim to have all vehicles EV as is required by current legislation but that they have always been in favour of a multi-solution approach as opposed to simply legislating all other solutions out of existence in favour of just going 100% EV.

That's all I've really argued for in any of these discussions - no problem with EVs (in fact at some point we may get one as a local runabout), no problem with driverless cars being available, no problem with people choosing a non-ownership model and relying on the Uber of the future, no problem with people deciding to move into the cities if they so choose to do so. Where I think we seem to always be at odds, Mod, is I'm not about to tell people what they want or suggest that legislation should do the job of deciding for people either. I believe people should have the freedom to choose these things for themselves.

...Meanwhile the lawmakers send us headlong into autonomous and alternatively fuelled vehicles - so.... who is it that is asking for the safer roads and cleaner planet then if no one on here knows anyone that is?

I don't disagree that anyone on here - a 'supercar brand enthusiasts site' is unlikely to see eye-to-eye with the direction of travel.

I don't doubt that folk on here nor their kids are not going to be the extinction rebellion types nor greta fans driving the agenda, i can bet their teachers are though and when they get to university even more so.

I don't doubt that the children related to those on here, or their school mates and peer groups, all aspire to the current paradigm of the ICE supercar - they are by definition not the mass market.

Statistically speaking the mass market is very very different from almost anyone on here and those people within the typical universe of the people on here....

BUT this site is about as far away from the mainstream as you can get.

Like I say - someone is buying the things - someone is asking for the legislation - someone is driving the green direction of travel - someone is driving the safety first agenda - and it isn't us in the industry - all we are doing is responding to the incoming laws otherwise we can't sell anything.

[Modificato]

I've just spent a while going through lots of polls about autonomous vehicles. It seems companies keep having polls hoping to get the answer they want but I'm struggling to find any polls where more people want them than don't. Factor in electric only and you can't own them and you're probably only catering for a very niche market

A; Why do you think the industry keeps polling to get this result? The industry does it to force the pace of change to be slower its called lobbying.

I also see that Mazda have just joined the efuel Alliance (first manufacturer to do so) who appear to be lobbying the EU in particular to take efuel usage into consideration when formulating upcoming legislation that would otherwise be a further nail in the coffin of ICE vehicles in Europe. [Bit late for that ]

There's also something of a squabble in the German automotive sector over upcoming EU legislation on this topic. [You bet there is] Mazda have said they currently aim to have all vehicles EV as is required by current legislation but that they have always been in favour of a multi-solution approach as opposed to simply legislating all other solutions out of existence in favour of just going 100% EV. [Je Reste Ma Valise]

That's all I've really argued for in any of these discussions - no problem with EVs (in fact at some point we may get one as a local runabout), no problem with driverless cars being available, no problem with people choosing a non-ownership model and relying on the Uber of the future, no problem with people deciding to move into the cities if they so choose to do so. Where I think we seem to always be at odds, Mod, is I'm not about to tell people what they want or suggest that legislation should do the job of deciding for people either. I believe people should have the freedom to choose these things for themselves.[I do too I am a libertarian but I work in the industry and see where the politicians are taking us on societies behalf]

Extinction rebellion have shut down our city twice already in Manchester and this is what we get in our local newspapers:

Andrew Carter, Centre for Cities’ chief executive said: “Politicians often talk tough on addressing air pollution but we need to see more action. People in Manchester should be at the centre of the fight against its toxic air and the council should take the steps needed, including charging people to drive in the city centre and banning wood-burning stoves."

“To help, the government needs to provide Manchester with extra money and introduce stricter guidelines. The deadly levels of polluted air in Manchester are entirely legal. This needs to change. As a matter of urgency, the Government should adopt WHO’s stricter guidelines around PM2.5 emissions. Failure to act now will lead to more deaths in Manchester.”

Perhaps these are the kind of voices you haven't hear yet in your social milieu / locale

[Nosevi]

I don't doubt that the children related to those on here, or their school mates and peer groups, all aspire to the current paradigm of the ICE supercar - they are by definition not the mass market.

Statistically speaking the mass market is very very different from almost anyone on here and those people within the typical universe of the people on here....

It's not about wanting a cleaner planet or not - efuel powered cars are better for the planet than going 100% EV and it's not even a close contest. The case is only just being able to be made for efuel as part of the future and car manufacturers are only just coming on board but month by month more and more are. Will it be enough to change tack? No idea.

People are not yet buying the things (if we are talking EV and certainly autonomous vehicles). They are being told they'll have to, but survey after survey says they don't want to.

My wife teaches in a normal primary school in an incredibly poor area and my kids go to a normal state school (albeit a pretty good one). Statistically speaking they ARE the mass market.

I'm really not out of touch with the 'masses' Mod, but from everything you've said I suspect you are. Every time they are actually asked they say they don't want the things you say they want.

Tell you what, let's park the discussion there because, much like GM, neither of us actually know which way this is going to go. Had the advances in alternatives to EV not come so far in the past year, and had the world scene not changed substantially with the US' attitude towards China shifting (helped along by how the Chinese have treated their own people), Brexit, the possibility of Eurosceptics in both Berlin and Paris with the effect that may have on the EU and of course Covid, I'd say you were almost certainly bang on - the direction of travel is unstoppable. But all those things are happening and who knows where we go from here. Give it 5 years or so, by then we'll truly know whether how you and many others see the future is the only possible end game.

[Nosevi]

Extinction rebellion have shut down our city twice already in Manchester and this is what we get in our local newspapers:

Andrew Carter, Centre for Cities’ chief executive said: “Politicians often talk tough on addressing air pollution but we need to see more action. People in Manchester should be at the centre of the fight against its toxic air and the council should take the steps needed, including charging people to drive in the city centre and banning wood-burning stoves."

“To help, the government needs to provide Manchester with extra money and introduce stricter guidelines. The deadly levels of polluted air in Manchester are entirely legal. This needs to change. As a matter of urgency, the Government should adopt WHO’s stricter guidelines around PM2.5 emissions. Failure to act now will lead to more deaths in Manchester.”

Perhaps these are the kind of voices you haven't hear yet in your social milieu / locale

Nope I've heard them and I agree with them far more than the 'masses' around here agree with them. But people like me have no issue with cleaner air in cities and if EVs help that then great, crack on. But it's blinkered to think that the right solution for inner city Manchester is the correct solution for vast swathes of the countryside and towns which don't have the same issues with air quality and overcrowding and have different requirements that aren't best solved with EV.

Again, I have nothing against EV, I just think it's great in some settings and can be part of the solution, but it doesn't have to be all of the solution when better solutions for different settings now exist.

[Nosevi]

Just as an aside, I know I said we should park the discussion but I've been reading the KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey which is actually quite interesting and makes several interesting points, one of which is that it now says that over 80% of global Automotive executives that responded think that:

"There is no “one and only” global mobility concept: Instead, we expect to see different mobility concepts for cities and rural areas......."

That is all I'm arguing and all I've ever argued. I'm not against EV and the like, I just think that people should have the choice and use what best suits them in their particular setting. Efuels is a game changer in that regard if there's enough time to scale it to have an impact. I think there still is time but we'll see

You can probably draw any conclusions you want out of all this data but parts are quite interesting:

https://automotive-institute.kpmg.de...e-architecture