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Thread: ICE, Hybrid, EV, Future Bans on Petrol Cars, & the Supercar

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    Default ICE, Hybrid, EV, Future Bans on Petrol Cars, & the Supercar

    Just posted a new karenable.com blog on ICE, Hybrid, EV, Future Bans on Petrol Cars, & the Supercar

    https://karenable.com/ice-hybrid-ev-...-the-supercar/

    Comments? Thoughts?

    What do you believe will actually happen?

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    As always an interesting article; thank you.

    Agree with you with regards to EV cars as an "appliance".

    As to your overall summary on timings, I tend to agree.

    Hybrids, for normal cars are just a con and as far as I can see (and those that have been unfortunate enough to own one that I've spoken to) don't return any benefit to either economy, economics or the environment, being the worst of both words combined to create something even worse, heavy batteries and electric motors increasing vehicle weight thus making the ICE engine work even harder than would be required without the EV side! I do however think they make sense for supercars, as whilst you should get the ICE experience, you get the EV performance thrown in; guess I need to blag a test drive and find out But then what's the environmental benefit? Probably none whatsoever!

    I think the disappointment for me in all this is that EV is not THE answer everybody is shouting it to be. Whilst the world will happily strip mine Africa and China to get the rare earth minerals to make the batteries, and soon the ocean floor (out of site and out of mind); is this really the panacea that everybody thinks it is or is it in fact diesel in the 70s? And we haven't really discussed the issue of battery recycling yet, despite a lot of people saying they can be recycled as domestic storage backups etc, they will still die at some stage.

    EV will be part of the solution, as will hydrogen for heavy industry and those stupid SUVs everybody wants to drive these days, but that has its own issues with regards to the amount of energy required to make the stuff in the first place. So I also think there is a solid place for synthetic fuels, like Porsche et al are chasing, which gives some hope for the use of our cars in longer-term future?

    One thing I think it will be interesting to see is what happens to the price/ demand of ICE cars over the next 2 - 5 years. Will mass media/ well intentioned politicians drive this down, despite the fact that fuels for them are very likely to be available for some considerable time?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxer View Post
    Just posted a new karenable.com blog on ICE, Hybrid, EV, Future Bans on Petrol Cars, & the Supercar

    https://karenable.com/ice-hybrid-ev-...-the-supercar/

    Comments? Thoughts?

    What do you believe will actually happen?
    Your piece whilst interesting misses the main point - the voice of the normal customer - this move is being driven by both youth who will soon be the mainstream and their opinion forming adults. The mainstream doesn’t care what powers their car nor the emotion of driving. That is for us freaks and car aficionados. Most people hate driving these days and cannot wait to be playing on their phone or doing social media while the car, or someone else, drives for them. I have changed completely my attitude to driving and car ownership for 90% of our families needs. Having moved to and living in the city for over a decade, which btw the worlds human population is increasingly moving towards, Uber is already a great solution. My son has started an on-demand car rental company this year based upon small city cars and from day one his generation is using the service. It’s mostly students going home to their parents and / or taking off for the occasional remote weekend trip. The car is almost irrelevant to the user it’s the on-line booking service and app experience that matters to them most - the feedback data is clear. Somewhere on the absolute fringes of this vast mainstream market which is now driven by technology / virtuous image and the extended digital experience are this weird niche market alled supercars. It used to be that Supercars were the source of the trickle-down technology to the mainstream but it is the digital world that leads and has led the industry for more than a decade now for its re-invention. Think about all the latest tech in our supercars what has driven it? I can’t fathom why anyone would want to listen to music in a Supercar let alone require the latest connectivity but I am not driving the market anymore.

    On demand, image appropriate, pay-as-you-go transport is what people actually need. For that school reunion / prom night you might want a Supercar (if your social group / followers value that and don’t have a downer on such things). Many wouldn’t want to be seen dead in what appears to be an environmental disaster - even if technically it isn’t one. That hobby horse of us aficionados arguing our case is a King Canute argument in the face of lightly informed mainstream opinion. We will be trotting out that line still as the mob crushes the cars.

    We are in an age where looking good and looking righteous is more important than actually being good.

    The biggest thing us car aficionados need to consider is that for 99.9% of the automotive industry you / we are not at all relevant as customers.

    When we moved to the city 100% of our apartment buildings owners had cars. Now a decade later it’s 30% and most people rent their parking space to commuters (who are declining) and use ride sharing apps instead. We had a fleet of six cars as a family, four of which were special occasion cars. Only two of those remain and a single daily which will likely be replaced by an on-demand solution now home based working is going to be a regular option.

    Politically it is unlikely that the UK will kill its heritage automotive sector in the near term but if it is politically expedient to do so I can see that changing in a couple of generations. So what is the future of the Super / Hypercar experience against that backdrop? That is the real question.
    Last edited by Modificato; 14-12-2020 at 09:56 AM.

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    I don't think it's as bleak as all that, Mod.

    While many people do live in cities where sharing apps, public transport and the like may make it pointless owning a car, there are places where those things simply won't work. Out here in the sticks it's not like I'm only going to go somewhere when someone else in my small village happens to be going there as well. Many people don't live in cities and what's more, have absolutely no intention of ever doing so. Lived on the edge of a big city in my youth, think I'll stick with out here in the sticks thanks.

    And having been to my kids school a few times in the Ferrari for one reason or another I don't recognise your depiction of todays youth at all - she always causes a stir whenever I've been anywhere where there are kids. She's low tech, slow (by modern standards), noisy and probably not very 'PC'......... the kids seem to love all that.

    I tend to think the future will be a mixture between EV as a local runabout (happy to get one for that role) and bio fuels and/or just hydrocarbon based fuels like petrol made from carbon already in the atmosphere and so totally carbon neutral.

    I'll be honest, still yet to have anyone tell me what the downside is from that last option - ie using solar to take carbon out of the atmosphere and make hydrocarbon based fuel like petrol, diesel and AVGAS. Totally carbon neutral (if not carbon negative if you legislate for a small amount of carbon capture in the process), no massive change to infrastructure, no range / weight issues, no (or much less) requirement to strip mine the planet for rare metals, no problems recycling the batteries from EVs, no transportation of energy (like moving batteries around the world or oil tankers from the middle east) as you can take carbon out of the atmosphere and 'refine' it anywhere ............ the list is endless. It's boring as it requires no new tech in terms of vehicles, we can just go on using what we have only without polluting the atmosphere (the fuels created can be 100% 'clean') so why is this not at least part of the answer?

    Genuinely, can anyone tell me what the downside is?

    The US is now investing in the concept from it's military budget I believe (not many charging points out there when you are on ops, you need to take your energy with you) so hopefully politicians will stop doing what Mod accuses the youth of today of doing - trying to look good over actually being good - and realise that you don't have to reinvent the wheel in order to protect the environment, you can keep using the wheels we have just in an environmentally friendly way.
    Last edited by Nosevi; 14-12-2020 at 02:14 PM.

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    Another change that we didn't see coming is Covid and it's impact on folk using public transport, i.e. much less than before

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nosevi View Post
    I don't think it's as bleak as all that, Mod.


    I'll be honest, still yet to have anyone tell me what the downside is from that last option - ie using solar to take carbon out of the atmosphere and make hydrocarbon based fuel like petrol, diesel and AVGAS. Totally carbon neutral (if not carbon negative if you legislate for a small amount of carbon capture in the process), no massive change to infrastructure, no range / weight issues, no (or much less) requirement to strip mine the planet for rare metals, no problems recycling the batteries from EVs, no transportation of energy (like moving batteries around the world or oil tankers from the middle east) as you can take carbon out of the atmosphere and 'refine' it anywhere ............ the list is endless. It's boring as it requires no new tech in terms of vehicles, we can just go on using what we have only without polluting the atmosphere (the fuels created can be 100% 'clean') so why is this not at least part of the answer?

    Genuinely, can anyone tell me what the downside is?

    Well firstly, I'm with you, but hopefully not too close. I very much dislike cities and will do most anything to avoid going near and or into one. The further away I can live from them the better!

    I think there are completely new markets emerging which is driven by car technology, tech in general and probably accelerated as a result of covid. My daughter and all her friends can't wait to get drivers licenses and get cars of their own, and no they do not want to share with anybody, they want their own. They are unfortunately not bothered what it is as long as it looks cool; but then what 16/17 year old didn't think that! Would this change if there was uber out here...no idea but probably as like any 16/17 year old there social diary changes by the second, and whatever it is it must be now. So the choice between waiting 15 minutes for a ride or popping in their own car now...its now!

    I think Mod is also right in that there is another market and that's for the city, which fair enough for those that like living in cities I can see the sense in that model and in all honesty if I lived in one i would be following suite, it would mean i could spend more on my toys .

    But where does that leave the supercar as you say? No idea, but like anything that has a value/lifestyle and is aspirational, it will be there in the mix somewhere. If people are so worried about the planet yet demand for SUVs is so high (more materials and far worse economy than a normal car, but has the same space!), what's wrong with a super car? Yeah I know, logic will never win over the righteous.

    It would be interesting to get your take as to what's in Ferrari's/Mclarens/Lambos/Porsche etc 5 year plans as to clues to the direction on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by A348W View Post
    Well firstly, I'm with you, but hopefully not too close. .
    You'd be ok - been laid up for 2 weeks with Covid (felt rubbish and test turned out positive) but over it now and allowed to retake my place in society Tell you one thing though, having our garden and adjoining small meadow to wander round was certainly better than being cooped up in an apartment in a city for a fortnight.

    Gordon has a good point though, quite aside from the financial hit we've had over the past year I think people's priorities and behaviours will have changed a little. The freedom to go where you want when you want will be welcome and that's something having your own transport allows. Equally, for a while at least, I think climate activists would be given no time at all if they go back to doing the sort of things we saw not so long ago; I think they'll find they've lost their audience somewhat.
    Last edited by Nosevi; 14-12-2020 at 07:03 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nosevi View Post
    I don't think it's as bleak as all that, Mod.

    While many people do live in cities where sharing apps, public transport and the like may make it pointless owning a car, there are places where those things simply won't work. Out here in the sticks it's not like I'm only going to go somewhere when someone else in my small village happens to be going there as well. Many people don't live in cities and what's more, have absolutely no intention of ever doing so. Lived on the edge of a big city in my youth, think I'll stick with out here in the sticks thanks.

    And having been to my kids school a few times in the Ferrari for one reason or another I don't recognise your depiction of todays youth at all - she always causes a stir whenever I've been anywhere where there are kids. She's low tech, slow (by modern standards), noisy and probably not very 'PC'......... the kids seem to love all that.

    I tend to think the future will be a mixture between EV as a local runabout (happy to get one for that role) and bio fuels and/or just hydrocarbon based fuels like petrol made from carbon already in the atmosphere and so totally carbon neutral.
    My experience over on the left side of the Atlantic has been more similar to yours. We now live in a smallish town and the reception we get to the supercars get is always very positive from all age groups. I can see us getting an EV as a runabout in a few years once there is more choice on the market. In terms of the youth of today, I think its all changing rapidly and Covid has had a major impact through the move to remote working. We have several kids all in their 20s who have been working remotely for the last 9 months. 2 of the 3 have moved out of cities and have no intention of going back. They are happy to keep working remotely and only commute into the city when needed for meetings. 1 of the 3 had gotten rid of his car a year ago and now has bought another, much nicer as he is now using it all the time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxer View Post
    My experience over on the left side of the Atlantic has been more similar to yours. We now live in a smallish town and the reception we get to the supercars get is always very positive from all age groups. I can see us getting an EV as a runabout in a few years once there is more choice on the market. In terms of the youth of today, I think its all changing rapidly and Covid has had a major impact through the move to remote working. We have several kids all in their 20s who have been working remotely for the last 9 months. 2 of the 3 have moved out of cities and have no intention of going back. They are happy to keep working remotely and only commute into the city when needed for meetings. 1 of the 3 had gotten rid of his car a year ago and now has bought another, much nicer as he is now using it all the time.
    All comments of this and preceding posts driven by niche / local / personal / wishful views and exception case examples however they don’t change the macro trends are clear and have been for years.

    The majority of people already now live in cities and it is still increasingly so - the automotive sector has to serve the majority of people otherwise it’s customer base becomes ever smaller.

    The percentage of humans (globally) living in cities was 69% in 1975, 73% by 1990, 75% by 2000 and 76.5% by 2010

    The latest projections are that the worlds urban population will double in number by 2100 and that by that time 85% of all humans will live in cities. The automotive sector if it wants to remain viable will need to target products to that 85% not the 15% left in the country side. Of course here in the UK we may not perceive that difference nor even recognise it as a trend until it has happened but we certainly will when we start to see very few products for our needs and alien design trends that are clearly driven by other markets and their use cases.

    The move to remote working only drives the on-demand model harder and while some will still want to ‘own’ things wider market research shows that the ‘value’ of long ownership of many consumer items is declining. In line with this 1 out of 4 cars in Europe is now leased / rented up from 1 out of 6 only five years ago and lease terms are getting shorter. In the industry we have to create products for the future. We have a number of autonomous vehicle projects already underway with major OEM’s. One is an urban based concept where the vehicle comes to you and based on emergency vehicle pioneered positioning logic in relation to the road network you will be amazed how far on-demand will extend beyond the city. Here in our city centre an uBer called from our apartment is typically there now before the lift gets to the ground floor. As the ride sharing has increased the vehicle movements mean the odds of a car being nearby just get better and better. The black cabs are like dodos.

    Our biggest challenge will be how to keep enjoying our enthusiast cars when there is no political will left to protect our hobby.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Modificato View Post

    The move to remote working only drives the on-demand model harder and while some will still want to ‘own’ things wider market research shows that the ‘value’ of long ownership of many consumer items is declining. In line with this 1 out of 4 cars in Europe is now leased / rented up from 1 out of 6 only five years ago and lease terms are getting shorter. In the industry we have to create products for the future. We have a number of autonomous vehicle projects already underway with major OEM’s. One is an urban based concept where the vehicle comes to you and based on emergency vehicle pioneered positioning logic in relation to the road network you will be amazed how far on-demand will extend beyond the city. Here in our city centre an uBer called from our apartment is typically there now before the lift gets to the ground floor. As the ride sharing has increased the vehicle movements mean the odds of a car being nearby just get better and better. The black cabs are like dodos.

    Our biggest challenge will be how to keep enjoying our enthusiast cars when there is no political will left to protect our hobby.

    The point on lease I find an interesting one. It wasn't that long ago and the model was outright ownership and if you leased people thought you were poor, or cash poor. To me it just seems like another marketing ploy to support companies balance sheets. Everybody approaches it differently, personally I prefer to own outright and for our daily drives, drive them into the ground. Our last car, bought used, lasted us 10 years and on purchase price worked out at 750 a year in cost. You don't get much lease for that!

    As to urban and country (whilst we are never really in the country side in the UK; not like north america) I can see this being two very different models going forwards, with them blurring through the "burbs"; but that's fine by me. As to autonomous vehicles, having specialised in safety risk for over 20 years, hell will have to freeze over before I ever get in one or allow my family to get in one, downright dangerous.

    Enjoying the enthusiast cars will be the challenge, and I wonder what the challenge will be, public perception, fuel availability (I recall a friend in Uni who use to pop to the local airfield to fill up his TZR250 with aviation fuel That and synthetic 2 stroke oil...god that smelt beautiful ) or something else?

    (Pete, didn't know you were poorly, but very glad to hear you are better )

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