ICE, Hybrid, EV, Future Bans on Petrol Cars, & the Supercar

[Nosevi]

All comments of this and preceding posts driven by niche / local / personal / wishful views and exception case examples however they donÂ’t change the macro trends are clear and have been for years.

The majority of people already now live in cities and it is still increasingly so - the automotive sector has to serve the majority of people otherwise itÂ’s customer base becomes ever smaller.

The percentage of humans (globally) living in cities was 69% in 1975, 73% by 1990, 75% by 2000 and 76.5% by 2010

The latest projections are that the worlds urban population will double in number by 2100 and that by that time 85% of all humans will live in cities. The automotive sector if it wants to remain viable will need to target products to that 85% not the 15% left in the country side. Of course here in the UK we may not perceive that difference nor even recognise it as a trend until it has happened but we certainly will when we start to see very few products for our needs and alien design trends that are clearly driven by other markets and their use cases.

The move to remote working only drives the on-demand model harder and while some will still want to ‘own’ things wider market research shows that the ‘value’ of long ownership of many consumer items is declining. In line with this 1 out of 4 cars in Europe is now leased / rented up from 1 out of 6 only five years ago and lease terms are getting shorter. In the industry we have to create products for the future. We have a number of autonomous vehicle projects already underway with major OEM’s. One is an urban based concept where the vehicle comes to you and based on emergency vehicle pioneered positioning logic in relation to the road network you will be amazed how far on-demand will extend beyond the city. Here in our city centre an uBer called from our apartment is typically there now before the lift gets to the ground floor. As the ride sharing has increased the vehicle movements mean the odds of a car being nearby just get better and better. The black cabs are like dodos.

Not a single one of those stats, data or predictions takes into account what Boxer has said and many have already seen happen - a move to remote working where you really don't need to be in an office and therefore a city to do your job. My sister works for a company whose main client is effectively the NHS. They have a central office and regional offices throughout the country in cities and large towns. They are allowing the leases for almost all the offices to expire and going to almost all staff working from home. The staff prefer it and it makes economical sense to do it. Yes, just one example as is Boxer talking about his kids doing the same, but there will be many others. Data showing a move into cities from 1975 - 2010 is all but irrelevant given the changing environment, in fact it would be irrelevant if it was data up to 2019. You may not think there will be a move to more working from home and people not having to live in cities but others are clearly worried by the prospect:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53925917

While I understand you chose to move into an apartment block in the middle of a city, a great many people do that from necessity and not choice. If (like Boxer's kids) that necessity disappears some at least will choose to make the most of it and leave the city. Not all but many. Certainly having a slightly younger family than you - my youngest has just started secondary school - I'd much prefer to bring up a family out here in the sticks than in the middle of a city. I'm not sure you understand how much the fact it takes you so long to get to the 'great outdoors' that an uBer has arrived before you get from your apartment to the front door simply makes my point about why I'd hate to live in an apartment block in the middle of a city.

I can go into a city if I want and it doesn't take more than a few minutes to get there (if you can call Lincoln a city......). Meanwhile I can stand on the balcony on my garage (which I can have because I have some space) and look out without just seeing buildings and people and hearing noise and bustle. Each to their own but all things being equal I'd take open countryside over inner city any day. Many people will now have the choice when they didn't before. I predict a few will feel the same way as I do.

[Nosevi]

(Pete, didn't know you were poorly, but very glad to hear you are better )

Yep, that's why I've not been around arguing....... I mean debating with Mod. Luckily I'm much better now

[mon the fish]

^^^ Pete has hit the nail on the head IMO (and good to hear you're on the mend). Cities exist for everything to be in the one place - work, leisure, retail, home.

But with the huge, unexpected move to WFH thanks to technology advances (can you imagine if covid had come along in the 90s!?), cities won't exist in their current form in the future IMO. Why choose to live there, when you can be closer to open space, fresh air, and Amazon brings you what you need the next day? I expect there to be a large amount of people looking to move permanently to where they spend their weekends (Cairngorms, Devon etc).

And as much as we are enthusiasts on here, there's always going to be young (mostly) men with money wanting to show off with the latest fancy car e.g. footballers. People seem to need to find a way to express wealth, and what better way than with a car?

The masses may not care how they own their cars but the masses don't buy supercars. I think Boxer's article is hard to argue with.

[Modificato]

Yep, that's why I've not been around arguing....... I mean debating with Mod. Luckily I'm much better now

Hope you are well Pete..

[Modificato]

Not a single one of those stats, data or predictions takes into account what Boxer has said and many have already seen happen - a move to remote working where you really don't need to be in an office and therefore a city to do your job. My sister works for a company whose main client is effectively the NHS. They have a central office and regional offices throughout the country in cities and large towns. They are allowing the leases for almost all the offices to expire and going to almost all staff working from home. The staff prefer it and it makes economical sense to do it. Yes, just one example as is Boxer talking about his kids doing the same, but there will be many others. Data showing a move into cities from 1975 - 2010 is all but irrelevant given the changing environment, in fact it would be irrelevant if it was data up to 2019. You may not think there will be a move to more working from home and people not having to live in cities but others are clearly worried by the prospect:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53925917

While I understand you chose to move into an apartment block in the middle of a city, a great many people do that from necessity and not choice. If (like Boxer's kids) that necessity disappears some at least will choose to make the most of it and leave the city. Not all but many. Certainly having a slightly younger family than you - my youngest has just started secondary school - I'd much prefer to bring up a family out here in the sticks than in the middle of a city. I'm not sure you understand how much the fact it takes you so long to get to the 'great outdoors' that an uBer has arrived before you get from your apartment to the front door simply makes my point about why I'd hate to live in an apartment block in the middle of a city.

I can go into a city if I want and it doesn't take more than a few minutes to get there (if you can call Lincoln a city......). Meanwhile I can stand on the balcony on my garage (which I can have because I have some space) and look out without just seeing buildings and people and hearing noise and bustle. Each to their own but all things being equal I'd take open countryside over inner city any day. Many people will now have the choice when they didn't before. I predict a few will feel the same way as I do.

You have to take the personal and the anecdotal out of it.

The first rule of product development is "never forget you are not the customer".

Yes we live as a family in the city centre week-to-week. My kids both elected to move out to their own apartments nearby but we also have an Olive Farm in Italy overlooking a lake.

What I write about in relation to the future of the automobile is not at all about my personal preference because I like both the city and the countryside - it is about the clear macro-level trends that are playing out at a global level that will impact our passion and ownership of Ferrari's.

The pandemic - of course - has had a big impact but it won't change fundamental human behaviour which is in the main to be social, collaborative, and cyclical. In the industrial revolution most people (except the landed gentry) came running to the cities for regular, non-seasonal work and not being out in the elements all day. After the war when the cities were destroyed, like my home town where 90% of the housing was damaged, the 'garden' estates went up and people romanticised again about life in the country. After the pandemic where people have had their socialisation, culture, leisure and entertainment curtailed what do you think will happen?

Social media has, of course changed the location of the public square for many, especially in the generation now starting work / university but flexible ad-hoc work spaces are the growth area in city centre development alongside the apartments for the people who want to work in them. The social media and IT giants have been busy building such campus style office spaces in hub communities because that's what their employees consistently want too. Imagine that the very people that are selling all the remote working solutions want to be highly social at work. I have been studio working collaboratively for 30 years and remote working for more than 20 years having co-founded one of the worlds first fully virtual professional services companies (we never ever had office space) so I understand deeply how technology both helps and can also hinder collaborative human work.

Every current project I am working on has big plans for what we are going to do as soon as we can all be back together.

[Boxer]

Not a single one of those stats, data or predictions takes into account what Boxer has said and many have already seen happen - a move to remote working where you really don't need to be in an office and therefore a city to do your job. My sister works for a company whose main client is effectively the NHS. They have a central office and regional offices throughout the country in cities and large towns. They are allowing the leases for almost all the offices to expire and going to almost all staff working from home. The staff prefer it and it makes economical sense to do it. Yes, just one example as is Boxer talking about his kids doing the same, but there will be many others. Data showing a move into cities from 1975 - 2010 is all but irrelevant given the changing environment, in fact it would be irrelevant if it was data up to 2019. You may not think there will be a move to more working from home and people not having to live in cities but others are clearly worried by the prospect:

This has been a great exchange. I do think Covid has dramatically changed the calculus on cities and this will play out over the coming 2-3 years. On a related point, I know of three large US multinationals (2 in New York, 1 in Boston) that are now planning on downsizing their HQs very significantly when their office lease expire at the end of 2021. Plan is to let most of the staff work remotely and just come in when needed.

[Nosevi]

You have to take the personal and the anecdotal out of it.

......

Yes we live as a family in the city centre week-to-week. My kids both elected to move out to their own apartments nearby but we also have an Olive Farm in Italy overlooking a lake.

But it is anecdotal and personal, its just a different anecdote and personal experience for different people. You're looking at it from one perspective, me from another. But I'm also looking at it from the perspective of many people who have had to live in a city yet would really prefer not to and may now have the choice. I think that's a bigger demographic than you seem to think but we'll see.

Regarding your second point, I know. The thing is many people have to choose one or the other - city or countryside - they don't have the option of both.

Truth is, Mod, neither of us have a clue. Covid may have little long term impact and people may continue to move into the cities......... or businesses may do what many have already said they will and embrace remote working practices allowing those of their staff who would prefer not to live in cities to move out. I'm honest enough to say I don't know. Time will tell.

[Nosevi]

This has been a great exchange. I do think Covid has dramatically changed the calculus on cities and this will play out over the coming 2-3 years. On a related point, I know of three large US multinationals (2 in New York, 1 in Boston) that are now planning on downsizing their HQs very significantly when their office lease expire at the end of 2021. Plan is to let most of the staff work remotely and just come in when needed.

Yep, but that's just anecdotal...........

[Modificato]

But it is anecdotal and personal, its just a different anecdote and personal experience for different people. You're looking at it from one perspective, me from another. But I'm also looking at it from the perspective of many people who have had to live in a city yet would really prefer not to and may now have the choice. I think that's a bigger demographic than you seem to think but we'll see.

Regarding your second point, I know. The thing is many people have to choose one or the other - city or countryside - they don't have the option of both.

Truth is, Mod, neither of us have a clue. Covid may have little long term impact and people may continue to move into the cities......... or businesses may do what many have already said they will and embrace remote working practices allowing those of their staff who would prefer not to live in cities to move out. I'm honest enough to say I don't know. Time will tell.

Well our business is not run nor organised by anecdotes.

We can't afford to gamble so much so we pay for and take industry research seriously and we consider it in-line with the strategies of the OEM's with whom we work closely.

We have to plan and act accordingly.

The facts are:

1) OEM's strategies are all firmly led by the emerging markets desires, not the historical homes of their brands, designers, engineers nor traditional motoring journalists
2) The global macro trends are what they are, the population is urbanising and increasingly so for example the CAGR of smart, connected urban transportation is already at 19%
3) Global Mobility as whole is increasing year on year with the SUV dominating in emerging markets whilst 'last-mile', on-demand, and infrastructure connectivity solutions grow in the developed economies.

Is the Supercar market now irrelevant given the SuperSUV market CAGR is 7% vs. Supercar market (CAGR -1% and declining)?

If you find yourselves increasingly puzzled by products being launched and have to yet to accept that the Ferrari Pursang will, just like the Bentley Bentayga (57% of total sales) and the Lamborghini Urus (60% of total sales) instantly turn Ferrari into a (majority) SUV maker I understand.

What does this all mean for the future of the Supercar?

Is the Supercar simply a legacy European concept?

Will our cars become legacy items to a former age?

The only anomaly in all of the current data is the present Hypercar market which has a CAGR of 38% - hence all of the special special edition super high end high margin limited numbers cars.

The working assumption in the industry is that this is the last hurrah market for the older supercar buyer as market analysis is already suggesting that the hypercar ownership profile is getting older year-on-year and conversely its a HyperSUV class that the emerging markets and young potential hypercard buyers actually want...

I really admire Ferrari's attempt with the FF to resist the wave and try to do something new but the Pursang is the inevitable next step and btw they have filed patents for a full EV recently so 2025 would be my shout for the first fully electric Ferrari.

Back to the original post that is what I actually BELIEVE will happen it is not what I WANT to happen but at the end of the day I am no longer the target market.

[Nosevi]

While all of this is undoubtedly true, Mod, and based on extensive and thorough market research, unless those doing that research had access to a crystal ball it will need to be updated when the world settles down.

Although net migration away from London stood at 30,000 in 2019, and although half of those currently in London who are planning to move in the near future have said they plan to move away from the city, and although 1.6 million people who would normally work in the capital but have been working from home outside it have said they wish to continue to do so....... despite all that I’m not saying you’re wrong. What I’m saying is you don’t know and rattling off pre Covid market research based on populations increasingly moving into cities and so having transport needs based on that is both slightly blinkered and more than a little silly.

If you’re a good businessman, and I have no doubt you are, it’d be wise to have a plan B if plan A relies on pre Covid trends continuing unchecked. Luckily I don’t have to worry about it