ICE, Hybrid, EV, Future Bans on Petrol Cars, & the Supercar

[A348W]

This has been a great exchange. I do think Covid has dramatically changed the calculus on cities and this will play out over the coming 2-3 years. On a related point, I know of three large US multinationals (2 in New York, 1 in Boston) that are now planning on downsizing their HQs very significantly when their office lease expire at the end of 2021. Plan is to let most of the staff work remotely and just come in when needed.

Same over in sunny Uk in Bristol at least anyway. As a micro SME we are currently utilising serviced offices and now looking for our own office space to fulfil some other requirements we have that serviced cant fulfil. Office leases are plentiful and the deals are amazing compared to a year ago. Whilst there will undoubtedly be a lasting impact of working from home from COVID, and rents will be down a bit for some time to come, we don't expect the bargains to be about much beyond late spring as we think there will be a pent up demand for people to get back to social scenes. Most of us oldies are more than happy to continue to work from home and if we never see the inside of an office again, happy days; but the young ones and those with families/ small houses/ flats etc are looking forward to it.

But back to supercars...the recent tax hikes in France on CO2 and car weight (the latter a clever idea) looks like the thin edge of the wedge, and if the gov gets decent money out of it will undoubtedly be rolled out to used cars, and other country's will look to follow! That said, there is no logic with politicians, the French scheme gives 0 tax to hybrids that can do 31 miles on electric...so expect to see lots of overweight hybrid SUVs out there, that are more polluting overall than a diesel due to the increased weight and tiny petrol engines that will be put in them!! The local Bristol Mayor is equally idiotic wanting to ban all diesel cars inside Bristol city centre last year. And the flaw in this...well despite a few minor issues such as the areas major hospital was inside this zone, as was one of the areas biggest shopping centres, and the council had just ordered a fleet of new diesel powered cars, petrol powered cars were not banned....so lots of lovely empty roads and car parking spaces for Ferraris and Lamborghinis etc He really isn't the brightest crayon in the pack!.

But that aside there is a clear direction of travel here, none of which any of us like or want, but then as Mod says, like it or not we are no longer the target audience for much of this. Our generation will likely be the last hoorah for the loud pedal so I intend to enjoy it to the full; and I have become hooked, no more like addicted, to the Capristo 2 and bypass valve on the 355 Bring on summer!

[Nosevi]

.........but then as Mod says, like it or not we are no longer the target audience for much of this. Our generation will likely be the last hoorah for the loud pedal so I intend to enjoy it to the full; and I have become hooked, no more like addicted, to the Capristo 2 and bypass valve on the 355 Bring on summer!

That I think we can all agree on

[Nosevi]

Just as an aside, in the 'Similar Threads' section below, the first suggested thread I got was this one from 12 years ago:

https://www.clubscuderia.co.uk/forum...nthusiast-cars

Perhaps echos what Boxer said about not overestimating what will happen in the short term?

[Boxer]

That I think we can all agree on

That we can

[Modificato]

That I think we can all agree on

Indeed we can.

I think the bright light in all of this is the efforts the heritage motoring lobby is doing and with hubs like Bicester the previously hidden, cottage industry nature of the UK heritage motoring sector can emerge from the back street garages and be the political force it will need to be.

We need to preserve the notion that most of any cars environmental sins are in manufacture and that retrospective legislation is not needed.

[Nosevi]

Indeed we can.

I think the bright light in all of this is the efforts the heritage motoring lobby is doing and with hubs like Bicester the previously hidden, cottage industry nature of the UK heritage motoring sector can emerge from the back street garages and be the political force it will need to be.

We need to preserve the notion that most of any cars environmental sins are in manufacture and that retrospective legislation is not needed.

Agree fully

[sssdu01]

Whilst the government is pushing its carbon neutral agenda, the cold hard facts will dictate the reality.

Those on lower incomes cant afford to buy an electric vehicle and after 5 to 7 years most electric vehicles will need new batteries. These batteries will be very expensive, so electric vehicles will remain outside the affordability of those on low incomes. Public transport doesnt work for a lot of people due to location/routes/time/etc. electric cars will always have the recharging issue with the time taken to recharge, or finding an empty recharge point when you need one.

This means the green revolution will either require either

Massive government subsidies (unlikely as covid has bankrupted us for generations)
A change of EV charging technology and batteries to enable fast charging (Logistically difficult and expensive)
The adoption of hydrogen powered vehicles (Haulage industry will support this as doesnt use batteries, and can refill same as diesel) Yes its uses a load of power the make hydrogen, but its a good way of turning spare electricity into something you can store and transport. This will make electric cars cheaper and as convenient as petrol, with much longer vehicle life. Even this will still be expensive.
Carbon neutral bio fuels for ICE engines (Attractive green option as its keeps existing vehicles on the road) but still expensive

Finally I am putting my money on the cheap and easy option (zero cost to government) , and therefore the most likely .......All new cars to be electric (battery or hydrogen), and the government will commit to the continues supply of fossil fuels for 10 to 15 years after the fossil fuel ban takes effect. This would represent a classic fudge with the government being able to claim green credentials, those on low incomes will still be able to afford private transport, and classic politics, the can will be kicked down the road leaving technology to catch up with the green aspirations, or someone else will have to make the unpopular decision in 15 years time.

[Kyodo]

I think Simon has it 100%

[mon the fish]

Yep, agree with that. There's a lot of people forget electric vehicles will remain outwith the financial reach of folk who don't earn enough money to run a Ferrari

On street parking, or communal parking at flats, what happens then with the chargers? It's all very well for those with a driveway etc who can install their own charging point. Will businesses pay to install chargers for their employees? I know I wouldn't, not my problem

[Modificato]

Whilst the government is pushing its carbon neutral agenda, the cold hard facts will dictate the reality.

Those on lower incomes cant afford to buy an electric vehicle and after 5 to 7 years most electric vehicles will need new batteries. These batteries will be very expensive, so electric vehicles will remain outside the affordability of those on low incomes. Public transport doesnt work for a lot of people due to location/routes/time/etc. electric cars will always have the recharging issue with the time taken to recharge, or finding an empty recharge point when you need one.

This means the green revolution will either require either

Massive government subsidies (unlikely as covid has bankrupted us for generations)
A change of EV charging technology and batteries to enable fast charging (Logistically difficult and expensive)
The adoption of hydrogen powered vehicles (Haulage industry will support this as doesnt use batteries, and can refill same as diesel) Yes its uses a load of power the make hydrogen, but its a good way of turning spare electricity into something you can store and transport. This will make electric cars cheaper and as convenient as petrol, with much longer vehicle life. Even this will still be expensive.
Carbon neutral bio fuels for ICE engines (Attractive green option as its keeps existing vehicles on the road) but still expensive

Finally I am putting my money on the cheap and easy option (zero cost to government) , and therefore the most likely .......All new cars to be electric (battery or hydrogen), and the government will commit to the continues supply of fossil fuels for 10 to 15 years after the fossil fuel ban takes effect. This would represent a classic fudge with the government being able to claim green credentials, those on low incomes will still be able to afford private transport, and classic politics, the can will be kicked down the road leaving technology to catch up with the green aspirations, or someone else will have to make the unpopular decision in 15 years time.

A lot right in this but I think the ride & asset sharing model will be adopted by the next generation for most of their transport needs.

My son has two city cars which are available in a car pool earning him some good passive income with the minimum of work required on his part. The whole business admin side is taken care of by the platform provider and all he does is supply the asset. Its like Air B&B for cars. In the travelling I have done over the last year the e:scooter rental models that have sprung up in many major cities seem to be part of the so-called 'last-mile' solution. Many cities in the US seem to be taking the approach that the inevitable injuries and near-misses with cars are worth it for the green halo effect. My instincts are that Post covid the old mass transport systems will suffer as they face competition from on-demand services and more personal transport options. I think Supercar rental / fractional ownership models like Damon Hill's P1 club attempt may now finally come into a viable market...