Ferrari are pretty much always stronger in the race than qualifying and Kimi can, on occasion, show pure brilliance off the line and into the first few corners - Nico could easily see himself in P4 after the first lap, particularly as Lewis will probably be taking keeping in Nico's way off the line as goal number 1.
My call for the race will be that the Ferraris will push Lewis more than some thought/think they will but it probably won't be enough. Nico might be up near Lewis if he gets a good start but if Lewis gets in his way (deliberately) and Kimi plays a blinder off the line and round the first few corners I can't see Nico out-racing the other 3 on the track.
My podium prediction is Lewis, Seb, Kimi (with Nico coming up with ever more inventive excuses in the drivers' pen afterwards).