Supercar Market Update

[Boxer]

Just finished an article on the current Supercar Market and where it might be headed.

https://karenable.com/supercar-market-insights-analysis-july-2022/

Thoughts? Comments?

 

[Modificato]

Interesting read as always.

Glad that people are starting to see my long predicted demographic effect on the older models and the moves to other marques with higher reputations for quality and reliability. The irony of this is often unfounded and based mainly on the anecdotally derived reliability reputation of seldom driven Ferrari’s. Montezemolo knew that the reputation was undeserved on an engineering and design basis hence his ‘drive them’ encouraging publicity campaigns such as the pan American 599 expedition.

A close friend of mine has just bought a 308 fibreglass for restoration - he is in the business - having liquidated some pension fund money. Having witnessed the ribbing he has taken for choosing such an ‘old man’s car’ I can suggest that he may be the last of the ‘driver enthusiasts’ that buy such a thing.

I predict the next trend for the older cars will be an increased obsession in what I call the museum quality, race to the bottom mileage wise, or celebrity previous owner associated storied cars. When I have visited such collections and now having heard so many of these boring stories (to me) I see a pattern in the narrative. I always like to provoke with “but how is it to drive?” Such collections in many cases seem to be nothing more than soulless ultra slow moving inventory inter-generation car dealerships.

For many driving enthusiasts these cars will not only be well out of reach but will simply not be worth the drive in the future. The social media groups for our cars are very interesting compared to the website ones and the behaviours and norms are a changing.

Currently clogging the stories are people buying their dream V8’s (F430 and 458’s) and being alarmed at all the issues when they put miles on typically on a big top gear style road trip right after purchase. People are running into issues with dealerships not addressing known issues and weaknesses and now being surprised that people actually want to drive the things. I visited my local dealership last week and this was the topic of interest they raised - the increase in mileage and use overall. Some of course is ‘post covid’ (whatever that means) effect but I predict a growing trend.

What will be interesting to watch is how, what look like similar models, differ in price and appreciation / depreciation cycles. This channel is interesting to watch on that score https://youtu.be/paHehjp_2Uc

My advice is if you are driver buy what you want to drive and if you are a collector/investor buy what you want to look at and review the market financially.

Thoughts?

 

[A348W]

what i do see of the uk market is interesting. during and just “after” covid it seemed nuts with not enough stock in dealers. 458s and f12s gaining particularly in that period. dealers were putting customers cars in the show rooms to make it look like they had stock; what was sold, sold before it even turned up.

now though; doesn’t seem so active with nice spec cars sitting in showrooms for a bit. the “spend now pay later” for everything, including gov borrowing; the “later” seems to have arrived!

i personally think the elephant in the room is 2030 and what will actually happen; when it will get licked into the long grass (you can see the politicians lining the excuses up already) and how this will all play out timing wise! personally i wouldn’t want to be banking on making money on a “main stream” ferrari back end of this decade. fortunately the cost of mine was written off in my head when i got it!

 

[Nosevi]

what i do see of the uk market is interesting. during and just “after” covid it seemed nuts with not enough stock in dealers. 458s and f12s gaining particularly in that period. dealers were putting customers cars in the show rooms to make it look like they had stock; what was sold, sold before it even turned up.

now though; doesn’t seem so active with nice spec cars sitting in showrooms for a bit. the “spend now pay later” for everything, including gov borrowing; the “later” seems to have arrived!

i personally think the elephant in the room is 2030 and what will actually happen; when it will get licked into the long grass (you can see the politicians lining the excuses up already) and how this will all play out timing wise! personally i wouldn’t want to be banking on making money on a “main stream” ferrari back end of this decade. fortunately the cost of mine was written off in my head when i got it!

I wouldn't want to be banking money on a main stream Ferrari any time really, it's hit and miss and you can just as easily lose as make.

Back when I got mine, 348s were advertised for and going for low 20s rather than low 60s - I bought mine for £22k - and while Mod may be (and probably is) right that those who want an analogue feeling machine are becoming fewer, I think we're a bit off the point where we'll crash significantly below that previous low point in the market. If we do we do, like Adrian my car is a toy which is bought and paid for, if I get some of that £22k back so be it, if not no real issues.

As for 2030, we'll see what happens as the past few years of pandemic in particular has to be paid for and alternatives to 100% EV continue to be developed.

 

[cgt]

I very nearly bought a Z8 new in 2001. From memory the dealer was absolutely desperate to get rid of it and I recall offered £20k off list making it 70-ish.

I drove a 360 Spider the same week and they actually felt quite similar back to back. The BMW had a fantastic quirky interior but the engine felt nothing special (same as the E39 M5 I had previously).

Of course I got the 360 even though it worked out quite a bit more expensive.

I've watched Z8 values with astonishment in recent years. It's a special car for sure but nowhere near the Ferrari experience.

 

[sssdu01]

i personally think the elephant in the room is 2030 and what will actually happen; when it will get licked into the long grass (you can see the politicians lining the excuses up already) and how this will all play out timing wise! personally i wouldn’t want to be banking on making money on a “main stream” ferrari back end of this decade. fortunately the cost of mine was written off in my head when i got it!

I did worry for 5 mins about petrol but then noticed "electric everything" had become "carbon neutral", with the likes of BMW buying up companies that turn carbon into synthetic petrol. its about £10 per litre at the moment but the price will come down to affordable levels for toy car users like us and we will just carry on as before.

 

[Boxer]

Interesting read as always.

A close friend of mine has just bought a 308 fibreglass for restoration - he is in the business - having liquidated some pension fund money. Having witnessed the ribbing he has taken for choosing such an ‘old man’s car’ I can suggest that he may be the last of the ‘driver enthusiasts’ that buy such a thing.

I predict the next trend for the older cars will be an increased obsession in what I call the museum quality, race to the bottom mileage wise, or celebrity previous owner associated storied cars. When I have visited such collections and now having heard so many of these boring stories (to me) I see a pattern in the narrative. I always like to provoke with “but how is it to drive?” Such collections in many cases seem to be nothing more than soulless ultra slow moving inventory inter-generation car dealerships.

Thoughts?

Thanks and the insights above are really interesting and aligned with some of what I am seeing on the other side of the pond as well. This obsession with no/low mileage seems to be growing and the car is less a piece of engineering and more a piece of art to be looked at and polished.

 

[francisn]

Thanks and the insights above are really interesting and aligned with some of what I am seeing on the other side of the pond as well. This obsession with no/low mileage seems to be growing and the car is less a piece of engineering and more a piece of art to be looked at and polished.

I don't understand any of that. My 308 GT4 is 44 years old with 83K on the clock, 26K done in my 8 year ownership. It owes me nothing and frankly I couldn't care less about its value. It is just great fun to drive and I love it. I effectively wrote of my "investment" the day I bought it. I bought it to enjoy it and I have!

I can possibly understand owners of more modern cars worrying about their residual value but to be honest, if that's what worries you most, just don't buy it in the first place.

 

[Boxer]

I don't understand any of that. My 308 GT4 is 44 years old with 83K on the clock, 26K done in my 8 year ownership. It owes me nothing and frankly I couldn't care less about its value. It is just great fun to drive and I love it. I effectively wrote of my "investment" the day I bought it. I bought it to enjoy it and I have!

I can possibly understand owners of more modern cars worrying about their residual value but to be honest, if that's what worries you most, just don't buy it in the first place.

Personally I agree. My F40 is probably completely worthless as it gets driven regularly.