2025 Predictions

[Boxer]

Just posted my 2025 auto world predictions:

2025 Predictions

Comments?

 

[A348W]

As ever, very interesting and I wouldn’t be surprised if most of that comes through.

What I do find interesting, if frustrating, currently looking for a new daily, is the demise of diesel in the daily driver category and the rise of petrol mild hybrids etc. Makes no sense. And the continued growth in size and numbers of pointless SUVs! Although Volvo brought back their estates due to much outcry.

Various political agendas on o&g and electrifications , net zero nonsense will also be interesting if infuriating to those that have a modicum of common sense!

 

[Nosevi]

What I do find interesting, if frustrating, currently looking for a new daily, is the demise of diesel in the daily driver category and the rise of petrol mild hybrids etc. Makes no sense. And the continued growth in size and numbers of pointless SUVs! Although Volvo brought back their estates due to much outcry.

Various political agendas on o&g and electrifications , net zero nonsense will also be interesting if infuriating to those that have a modicum of common sense!

Personally I've got no issue with net zero as a goal, what I think is infuriating is how they seem to be intent on going about it - with massive infrastructure change and essentially 100% uptake of EVs, all of which has an astronomical carbon footprint albeit not all in the UK. Bonkers.

Re your continued hate of SUVs I still think that's more than a little blinkered. Granted they are probably not required so much for the school run in your neck of the woods but in other areas having at least 1 car with space in for the kids and dog etc which has 4 wheel drive is a smart move. Plenty of farms, hamlets and small villages out this way which aren't on gritting routes and I'd guess there are lots of areas like this. I can see EVs being right for some people (and we could live with 1 as long as a second car isn't EV) but utterly useless for others, say if you have no dedicated off road parking space. Equally while an SUV may not be needed by you that's a bit of a poor reason to say they they are 'pointless' for everyone. Given where we live and where my wife teaches we will always have a car with 4 wheel drive if we can.

 

[A348W]

Net zero is just an accounting trick! If something man has manufactured its not net zero! I do agree with the intent of reducing our impact on the environment; the approach is just wrong.

EVs have their place for sure, its just our politicians can't get it out if their little heads thats theres more than one solution needed!

As to SUVs, sorry, they are pointless, just a marketing teams con. My estate has bigger capacity than the vast majority of suvs, comes in a 4 wheel drive variant if needed; but weighs less so uses far less energy to move, and has taken a lot less raw materials to manufacture. our closest gritted road is about 2 miles away, and i certainly dont feel the need for a suv! If you live on a farm etc, you dont need an suv you need a 4*4 truck! we will have to agree to disagree

 

[Nosevi]

Ok but for once you're talking absolute nonsense. A modern SUV with the same internal capacity as an estate, isn't going to weigh any more than a 4x4 version of that estate and it's not going to be any less economical to make or drive. As you mentioned Volvo estates and as we have a Skaoda SUV as one of our cars I had a quick glace at the numbers of literally the first two I looked at. A Skoda Karoq 4x4 has bigger capacity than a Volvo V60, it's lighter and gets better miles to the gallon than a V60 4WD whether you're looking at the purely petrol variants or the diesel. Won't go through all the figures but think that's the case compared to the V90 as well. My advice to you is if you care about such things ditch that heavy, thirsty and wasteful Volvo estate and go buy a Skoda SUV

(All tongue in cheek but also happens to be true)

 

[mon the fish]

Looking out the window to another 3" of snow overnight for the fourth night in a row, and not seeing temps above 0 deg C for over a week, I live somewhere where SUVs are very popular and 4wd is very useful. Yet my S4 Avant does everything an SUV can; nothing against anyone wanting one but I just don't see the point, a quattro estate does everything I need - can get two bikes in the back with the wheels still on, for example.

We got a Tesla in November (through my Ltd Co, the only way I'd do it) and it's been great for us so far. Very impressed with the lack of servicing costs - not sure how legacy manufacturers are going to manage the move to EV servicing costs. However, being over 100 miles from a motorway means the charging facilities in NE Scotland are terrible - even the Tesla network. Hence it's unlikely we'll use it for long distances - we got to Glasgow a few times each year and I can do it and back on one tank of petrol. I couldn't do that in the Tesla, and I can't be bothered waiting somewhere for 30 mins for it to charge - I just want home.

 

[Nosevi]

Looking out the window to another 3" of snow overnight for the fourth night in a row, and not seeing temps above 0 deg C for over a week, I live somewhere where SUVs are very popular and 4wd is very useful. Yet my S4 Avant does everything an SUV can; nothing against anyone wanting one but I just don't see the point, a quattro estate does everything I need - can get two bikes in the back with the wheels still on, for example.

Totally agree. My point though is it works both ways - an SUV does everything a 4x4 estate does. Neither is better, neither is worse. You can just as easily say I don't see the point in a 4x4 estate as saying it the other way round. My last car before the Yeti was an Octavia Scout ie a 4x4 estate.

 

[mon the fish]

SUVs are higher, therefore heavier and less aero efficient...

Get a 400bhp 4wd estate and save the planet

You can definitely tell the townfolk that move here to the country - they all buy faux-SUVs, whilst the folk that have lived here for years tend to have Subarus, old Audis or 4x4 Skodas

 

[Nosevi]

SUVs are higher, therefore heavier and less aero efficient...

Get a 400bhp 4wd estate and save the planet

You can definitely tell the townfolk that move here to the country - they all buy faux-SUVs, whilst the folk that have lived here for years tend to have Subarus, old Audis or 4x4 Skodas

I happen to be a fan of estates but like Adrian what you are saying simply isn't true. Again, looking at the smallest Skoda 4x4 SUV it has bigger capacity than an S4, it's actually lighter and it has better mpg. No probs people not liking SUVs but you can't say they are pointless based on an argument that a 4x4 estate does the job of load carrying better and it's somehow better for the planet. That argument simply doesn't hold water when you look at some numbers. I think both are valid options.

 

[Silver360]

Cars with Haldex clutches those Audis , Skoda s etc are essentially FWD full time . It’s only when the electrotwackery up front ( ABS rotation sensors comparing front / back ) detect a big difference, out side parameters does tiny solenoid on the Haldex kick in the rear axle . It’s oil lubricated and has a very fine mesh .Long periods of inactivity or stale glogged oil very often means the rears don’t come on taking drive .There’s no VAG service interval for changing or cleaning the fine mesh filter nor any warning lights to say the rears are or indeed not engaged.

There is service interval to change the Haldex oil …..but the issues isn’t that it’s the fine mesh filter .

A real 4x4 has permanent drive to both axles . Sure there’s often a bit of electrotwackery to control the % split but never the less it’s never 100 and zero like the aforementioned.

Also via cockpit controls you can dial in the % split .

So we are comparing apples + pears here lumping Haldex Audis / Skoda ,/ and other VAG cars in with LR , Porsche , Merc 4x4 s .

We live part time at 1500 M in the Swiss alps * in the winter .Ground clearance is important in snowy condition as is correct winter tyres and we carry chains for both axles .

Believe me you need a proper 4x 4 with a permanent drive split , equipped with winters and carry chains to do snow driving properly.


* Great summer Ferrari roads .

 

[Nosevi]

Yep, I know about the Haldex clutch on my Yeti because I've recently had it sorted at my little local garage. The Yeti isn't a bad car in the snow (with the Haldex working) but you're right It's not a patch on a true 4x4. I previously owned a 4.0 Jeep Wrangler which was a completely different beast off road and was an absolute blast in the snow. Dreadful car for motorway cruising though, guess it's horses for courses. Cars like the light weight SUVs I've been talking about or the 4x4 estates Adrian and Gordon are so keen on are, at the end of the day, compromises.

 

[A348W]

v60 is a small car.

lets compare like for like and look at the x5 and 5 estate which use the same basis. broadly similar load capacity, 100ltrs more in the x5. x5 heavier by several hundred lbs. fuel economy on both with same engine and xdrive, x5 31mpg, estate 41 mpg. enough said really! its simple physics, when comparing like for like they are heavier bigger and less efficient for no real purpose.

But more interesting and on topic, I find the lack of diesels in a lot of companies lineups! (no diesel for the bmw 3 series, only a 4ltr in the 5 series next year etc) what we were told was “the answer” last time is now the evil twin, with manufacturers now using much less efficient petrol engines…I dont understand?!

having learnt to drive in canada, if you were lucky you got a good set of winter tyres and away you went (from memory you were not allowed chains or studs on normal roads!). And off course a bit of practise…mates mk1 ice racer, messing about in his front yard as kids. nothing to do with 2025 predictions; sorry, just fun!

 

[Nosevi]

v60 is a small car.

lets compare like for like and look at the x5 and 5 estate which use the same basis. broadly similar load capacity, 100ltrs more in the x5. x5 heavier by several hundred lbs. fuel economy on both with same engine and xdrive, x5 31mpg, estate 41 mpg. enough said really! its simple physics, when comparing like for like they are heavier bigger and less efficient for no real purpose.

The X5 is in fact bigger than the 5 series Touring and it has more load capacity. The 5 Series Touring is the same size in terms of capacity as the X3, not the X5. Now look at those back to back and see if things like mpg or indeed raw materials used are vastly different. My guess is that they aren't.

Truth is it matters not. I get it that you don't like SUVs, not everyone does. But you can just say "I don't like SUVs", you don't need to try to legitimise it.

Regarding diesels, I agree. My past few dailies have all been diesel. My worry with renewing with one though is if areas in and around some cities go 'diesel free'. Maybe I'm being a pessimist but I could see it happening.

 

[mon the fish]

I reeled a big one in yesterday it seems

 

[Nosevi]

I reeled a big one in yesterday it seems

Possibly. I just think in todays world of 'alternative facts' it's important to be correct on these important matters.

 

[mon the fish]

... which is that SUVs are shit, yes?

 

[Nosevi]

... which is that SUVs are shit, yes?

Something like that

 

[A348W]

The X5 is in fact bigger than the 5 series Touring and it has more load capacity. The 5 Series Touring is the same size in terms of capacity as the X3, not the X5. Now look at those back to back and see if things like mpg or indeed raw materials used are vastly different. My guess is that they aren't.

Truth is it matters not. I get it that you don't like SUVs, not everyone does. But you can just say "I don't like SUVs", you don't need to try to legitimise it.

Regarding diesels, I agree. My past few dailies have all been diesel. My worry with renewing with one though is if areas in and around some cities go 'diesel free'. Maybe I'm being a pessimist but I could see it

I think it’s easier to just agree we wont agree on SUVs!!!

fuel availability will be interesting though. as I might just about be getting a new ish daily, Id prefer a diesel for economy and range, but petrol cars are more widely available but much worse economy and off course range. Towns are likely to do more ulez rubbish and penalise diesel more. that said i dont go into towns much, and think if we continue on this nut job trajectory diesel will be around much longer than petrol; due to all the trucks/ heavy machinery/ generators etc etc. decisions decision

that said, my eye might be getting swayed by a 599; in which case the daily will just have soldier on!!!

 

[mon the fish]

I do miss the range of my 530d, but I don't miss the stench, clatter and lack of revs. That said, as above I wonder if diesel will be available for longer in an agricultural area like mine.

ULEZ and the bus gates in Aberdeen have killed the city centre - it's a 45 min drive for me anyway, but it's now such a pain I order everything online and don't bother going near

 

[Nosevi]

I do miss the range of my 530d, but I don't miss the stench, clatter and lack of revs. That said, as above I wonder if diesel will be available for longer in an agricultural area like mine.

ULEZ and the bus gates in Aberdeen have killed the city centre - it's a 45 min drive for me anyway, but it's now such a pain I order everything online and don't bother going near

Red diesel for agricultural vehicles could be plentiful for years after the stuff we can use in our cars might start to be faded out. The big farms around us like Dyson's (over the fence at the end of our field) have their own 'filling stations' on the farm, even smaller farms near us have red diesel tanks somewhere on the farm as do the golf courses I go to. I doubt diesel disappearing from the pumps locally would effect them at all. I do think there's a place for all forms of fuel/energy for transport though, this push for 100% EV just seems so blinkered to me.

I'll concur with you last statement. I find it very odd that politicians of all stripes go on about saving city centres and highstreets then do everything they can to make it less convenient or more expensive to visit them.